Ultrabook Sees a Bright Development in 2013

Given to the macroeconomic malaise, PC shipment suffers the first decline at 1.2% since 2001; even the launch of Windows 8 can’t rescue PC market, which results in Intel and AMD decrease revenue in the third quarter and the operating income forecast for the fourth quarter. Intel plans to promote growth rate with the help of Ultrabook, but due to the high-cost, Ultrabook market shows gloomy outlook. However, 2013 will see larger growth of Ultrabook with growth rate of Over 30%, exceeding 30 million units, becoming the Key PC Market Indicator, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce.

With the cost decline of ultrabook components like SSDs, displays, and cases becomes more apparent next year, Ultrabook in 2013 will welcome a development spring. Taking SSD, for example, after three quarters of yield rate improvement, volume production of 20nm process SSD products will begin at the end of the first quarter of 2013. As yield rate continues to increase, SSD unit cost may see a 25-30% reduction next year, which would contribute significantly to lowering high-end ultrabook cost (most use 128GB or 256GB pure SSD). Additionally, the majority of PC makers have set ultrabook price around 699 USD; at this price, over 80% of ultrabooks will use a hybrid storage solution. The 15-20% cost savings would enable makers to set prices at 699 USD or lower, possibly to 599 USD. Furthermore, at the latest Intel Developer Forum, Intel introduced NGFF (Next Generation Form Factor), its new SSD standard. Currently, mSATA SSD comes in varying specifications and sizes; standardizing SSD modules would lower developing costs for manufacturers, and TrendForce expects this move will significantly benefit NAND flash demand. Furthermore, Intel’s Haswell microarchitecture and Shark Bay platform will launch in the second quarter of 2013; with more products being developed that are suited to ultrabooks’ efficiency needs, manufacturers will be able to produce even better ultrabooks.

Looking ahead to 2013, due to the influence of smartphone and Tablet PC, as well as the improvement of macroeconomic situation, notebook sets to show modest growth where Ultrabooks are the main driving force, due to the key components cost and overall cost structure decline, plus the coming of the new processors.