The Startup of OLED TV
Due to the impact from mass production challenges and expected high retail prices, the possibility of commercialization for OLED TV in 2012 is called into question, despite high expectations set by manufacturers Samsung and LG Electronics for the entry of OLED (organic light emitting diode) displays into the TV market in 2012; and these sets will likely only be available in small volumes by the end of this year, according to market research firm NPD DisplaySearch.
The NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report show that OLED TV panel makers and set manufacturers are still targeting commercialization this year. And it also disclosed that 2012 will ship at least 500 OLED TVs. While this is a very small quantity in comparison to the total TV market, the start of shipments will be an important breakthrough.
It is important for OLED manufacturers to make a statement as the LCD TV market shifts to larger screen sizes and higher resolutions. “If we do see OLED TVs hit the market within 2012, the shipments will be used primarily for retail demonstrations in developed regions like North America and Europe,” said David Hsieh, NPD Display Search Vice President, “4K × 2K LCD TVs have has become a focus and are currently available, and OLED TV needs to demonstrate its technical superiority.”
NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that OLED TV panel production will remain low, as LG and Samsung continue their efforts to increase production yields. Following in the footsteps of Korean panel manufacturers, Taiwan, China and Japan will support/begin AMOLED TV panel production in 2014, and NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that OLED TV shipments will pass one million units. By 2016, OLED penetration of the TV market is forecast to exceed 3%.
The following are several key technical and market challenges that OLED TV will need to overcome:
• Technical challenges in manufacturing large OLED panels—for example 55”—for TV as opposed to small (less than 5”) panels currently being made in high volumes for smart phones
• Manufacturing limitations of having only two Gen 8 OLED lines for TV panels, both still in pilot mode, with low manufacturing yields that keep costs high and limit the ability to meet demand
• High retail price, which will initially be around $10K for a 55” OLED TV
• Potential competition from 4K × 2K (ultra-high definition) LCD TVs, which are being developed by panel makers in Taiwan, China, and Japan, while their Korean counterparts have been focused on OLED TV panels
• Timing of market entry: Samsung and LG have developed strong positions in OLED technology and manufacturing capacity, but it is not clear if other panel makers can catch up to them.